Euro Champ Qualifying
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-
Matteo Darmian
17'
-
Matteo Darmian
17'
-
Federico Chiesa
41'
-
Federico Chiesa
45'+3'
-
Nicolo Zaniolo
72'
-
Giacomo Raspadori
81'
-
Francesco Acerbi
89'
-
Stephan El Shaarawy
90'+3'
-
Jani Atanasov
52'
-
Jani Atanasov
74'
-
Darko Churlinov
79'
-
Stefan Ashkovski
80'
-
Milan Ristovski
84'
-
Blagoja Milevski
84'
-
Nikola Serafimov
87'
Italy vs North Macedonia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Predicted Lineups
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 70.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 10.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.43%) and 3-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
Result
Italy
70.63%
▲
(+0.37)
Draw
18.45%
▼
(-0.42)
North Macedonia
10.91%
▲
(+0.06)
Both Teams to Score:
44.58%
▲
(+1.49)
Goals
Over 2.5
54.17%
▲
(+1.92)
Under 2.5
45.83%
▼
(-1.92)
Over 3.5
31.85%
▲
(+1.80)
Under 3.5
68.15%
▼
(-1.80)
Over 4.5
15.97%
▲
(+1.26)
Under 4.5
84.03%
▼
(-1.26)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
88.28%
▲
(+0.66)
Under 0.5
11.72%
▼
(-0.66)
Over 1.5
63.15%
▲
(+1.39)
Under 1.5
36.85%
▼
(-1.39)
North Macedonia Goals
Over 0.5
50.5%
▲
(+1.32)
Under 0.5
49.5%
▼
(-1.32)
Over 1.5
15.69%
▲
(+0.91)
Under 1.5
84.31%
▼
(-0.91)
Score analysis
Italy
70.62%
Draw
18.45%
North Macedonia
10.91%
Italy
2-0
@
13.33%
▼
(-0.40)
1-0 @ 12.43% ▼ (-0.71)
3-0 @ 9.53% ▼ (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.38% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 6.7% ▲ (+0.23)
4-0 @ 5.11% ▲ (+0.12)
4-1 @ 3.59% ▲ (+0.22)
3-2 @ 2.36% ▲ (+0.17)
5-0 @ 2.19% ▲ (+0.11)
5-1 @ 1.54% ▲ (+0.13)
4-2 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.12)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 70.62%
1-0 @ 12.43% ▼ (-0.71)
3-0 @ 9.53% ▼ (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.38% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 6.7% ▲ (+0.23)
4-0 @ 5.11% ▲ (+0.12)
4-1 @ 3.59% ▲ (+0.22)
3-2 @ 2.36% ▲ (+0.17)
5-0 @ 2.19% ▲ (+0.11)
5-1 @ 1.54% ▲ (+0.13)
4-2 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.12)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 70.62%
Draw
1-1
@
8.75%
▼
(-0.15)
0-0 @ 5.8% ▼ (-0.49)
2-2 @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.16)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 18.45%
0-0 @ 5.8% ▼ (-0.49)
2-2 @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.16)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 18.45%
North Macedonia
0-1
@
4.08%
▼
(-0.18)
1-2 @ 3.08% ▲ (+0.07)
0-2 @ 1.44% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 10.91%
1-2 @ 3.08% ▲ (+0.07)
0-2 @ 1.44% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 10.91%
Head to Head
Euro Champ Qualifying
-
Jovan Manev
68'
-
Enis Bardhi
81'
-
Isnik Alimi
88'
-
Ciro Immobile
47'
-
Federico Dimarco
70'
-
Sandro Tonali
75'
-
Nicolo Zaniolo
79'
World Cup Qualifying - Europe
-
Stefan Spirovski
80'
-
Aleksandar Trajkovski
90'+2'
World Cup Qualifying - Europe
-
Giorgio Chiellini
40'
-
Aleksandar Trajkovski
77'
World Cup Qualifying - Europe
-
Ilija Nestorovski
57'
-
Ferhan Hasani
60'
-
Andrea Belotti
24'
-
Ciro Immobile
75'
-
Ciro Immobile
92'