Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for North Macedonia had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest North Macedonia win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.