Spain vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.