Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 55.69%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.