Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Georgia had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Georgia win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Georgia would win this match.