Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Georgia had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Georgia win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.