Euro Champ Qualifying
England
Oct 17, 2023 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT Wembley Stadium
Italy
  • Kalvin Phillips 9' yellowcard
  • Harry Kane 32' goal
  • Marcus Rashford 57' goal
  • Harry Kane 77' goal
  • yellowcard Destiny Udogie 10'
  • goal Gianluca Scamacca 15'
  • yellowcard Giovanni Di Lorenzo 30'
  • yellowcard Giorgio Scalvini 65'

England vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

England

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last game
Sep 9, 2023 5.00pm
Ukraine 1 - 1 England

Italy

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last game
Oct 14, 2023 7.45pm
Italy 4 - 0 Malta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Italy had a probability of 20.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.

Result

England 55.66% ▲ (+2.95)
Draw 23.66% ▼ (-0.56)
Italy 20.68% ▼ (-2.40)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.72% ▼ (-1.46)

Goals

Over 2.5 50.42% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 2.5 49.57% ▲ (+0.35)
Over 3.5 28.39% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 3.5 71.6% ▲ (+0.32)
Over 4.5 13.57% ▼ (-0.22)
Under 4.5 86.42% ▲ (+0.21)

England Goals

Over 0.5 82.34% ▲ (+0.97)
Under 0.5 17.65% ▼ (-0.98)
Over 1.5 51.72% ▲ (+1.66)
Under 1.5 48.27% ▼ (-1.67)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5 61.59% ▼ (-2.54)
Under 0.5 38.4% ▲ (+2.53)
Over 1.5 24.84% ▼ (-2.51)
Under 1.5 75.15% ▲ (+2.50)

Score analysis

England 55.65%
Draw 23.65%
Italy 20.68%
England
1-0 @ 11.75% ▲ (+0.52)
2-0 @ 10.19% ▲ (+0.76)
2-1 @ 9.76% ▲ (+0.09)
3-0 @ 5.89% ▲ (+0.61)
3-1 @ 5.64% ▲ (+0.23)
3-2 @ 2.7% ▼ (-0.08)
4-0 @ 2.56% ▲ (+0.34)
4-1 @ 2.45% ▲ (+0.17)
4-2 @ 1.17% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.55%
Total : 55.65%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.25% ▼ (-0.26)
0-0 @ 6.78% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.67% ▼ (-0.29)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 23.65%
Italy
0-1 @ 6.49% ▼ (-0.37)
1-2 @ 5.39% ▼ (-0.52)
0-2 @ 3.11% ▼ (-0.41)
1-3 @ 1.72% ▼ (-0.30)
2-3 @ 1.49% ▼ (-0.21)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 20.68%

Head to Head

Euro Champ Qualifying
Italy
Mar 23, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 2
FT
England
  • Mateo Retegui 56' goal
  • goal Declan Rice 13'
  • goal Harry Kane 44'
Nations League
Italy
Sep 23, 2022 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
England
  • Giacomo Raspadori 68' goal
Nations League
England
Jun 11, 2022 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Italy
  • Jack Grealish 29' yellowcard
  • James Ward-Prowse 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Manuel Locatelli 25'
  • yellowcard Federico Gatti 48'
  • yellowcard Sandro Tonali 90'+3'
European Championship
Italy
Jul 11, 2021 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
ET Wembley Stadium
England
  • Nicolo Barella 47' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Bonucci 55' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Bonucci 67' goal
  • Lorenzo Insigne 84' yellowcard
  • Giorgio Chiellini 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Jorginho 114' yellowcard
  • goal Luke Shaw 2'
  • yellowcard Harry Maguire 106'
International Friendlies
England
Mar 27, 2020 8.00pm
Italy
International Friendlies
England
Mar 27, 2018 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Wembley
Italy
  • Jamie Vardy 26' goal
  • Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 40' yellowcard
  • Kyle Walker 72' yellowcard
  • Ashley Young 83' yellowcard
  • goal Lorenzo Insigne 87'

Form Data

England 1 - 0 Australia
Scotland 1 - 3 England
Ukraine 1 - 1 England
England 7 - 0 N. Macedonia
Malta 0 - 4 England
England 2 - 0 Ukraine
Italy 4 - 0 Malta
Italy 2 - 1 Ukraine
N. Macedonia 1 - 1 Italy
Netherlands 2 - 3 Italy
Spain 2 - 1 Italy
Malta 0 - 2 Italy

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