Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Italy
4 - 0
Malta

Bonaventura (22'), Berardi (45+1', 63'), Frattesi (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Mbong (44'), Yankam (53'), Apap (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Italy and Malta, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Saturday's Euro 2024 qualifying Group C clash with Malta.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Italy 2-1 Ukraine
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	4	2	7
3	Ukraine	5	-1	7
4	North Macedonia	5	-5	7
5	Malta	5	-10	0

Malta

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Malta 0-2 N. Macedonia
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	5	14	13
2	Italy	4	2	7
3	Ukraine	5	-1	7
4	North Macedonia	5	-5	7
5	Malta	5	-10	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Malta had a probability of 13.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.84%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result
Italy	Draw	Malta
63.33% ( 3.53)	23.06% ( -1.09)	13.6% ( -2.44)

Both teams to score 39.25% (

-2.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.33% (

-0.13)

57.67% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.57% (

-0.1)

78.43% (

0.1)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.16% (

1.25)

17.84% (

-1.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.4% (

2.1)

48.6% (

-2.1)

Malta Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.77% (

-3.64)

52.23% (

3.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.85% (

-2.5)

86.15% (

2.5)

Score Analysis

Italy 63.33%

Malta 13.6%

Draw 23.06%

Italy	Draw	Malta
1-0 @ 16.06% ( 0.71) 2-0 @ 13.84% ( 1.13) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.93) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.52) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.81% Total : 63.33%	1-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.65) 0-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.39) Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.06%	0-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.64) 1-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.61) 0-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.45) Other @ 2.2% Total : 13.6%