Euro Champ Qualifying
Italy
Oct 14, 2023 7.45pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Malta
  • Giacomo Bonaventura 22' goal
  • Domenico Berardi 45'+1' goal
  • Domenico Berardi 63' goal
  • Davide Frattesi 90'+3' goal
  • yellowcard Paul Mbong 44'
  • yellowcard Yannick Yankam 53'
  • yellowcard Ferdinando Apap 54'

Italy vs Malta - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last game
Sep 12, 2023 7.45pm
Italy 2 - 1 Ukraine

Malta

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last game
Sep 12, 2023 7.45pm
Malta 0 - 2 N. Macedonia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.33%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Malta had a probability of 13.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.84%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-0 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result

Italy 63.33% ▲ (+3.54)
Draw 23.06% ▼ (-1.09)
Malta 13.6% ▼ (-2.45)

Both Teams to Score: 

39.25% ▼ (-2.36)

Goals

Over 2.5 42.33% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 2.5 57.67% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 3.5 21.57% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 3.5 78.43% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 4.5 9.25% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 4.5 90.75% ▲ (+0.06)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5 82.16% ▲ (+1.25)
Under 0.5 17.84% ▼ (-1.25)
Over 1.5 51.4% ▲ (+2.11)
Under 1.5 48.6% ▼ (-2.11)

Malta Goals

Over 0.5 47.77% ▼ (-3.65)
Under 0.5 52.23% ▲ (+3.65)
Over 1.5 13.85% ▼ (-2.50)
Under 1.5 86.15% ▲ (+2.50)

Score analysis

Italy 63.33%
Draw 23.06%
Malta 13.6%
Italy
1-0 @ 16.06% ▲ (+0.71)
2-0 @ 13.84% ▲ (+1.13)
2-1 @ 8.99% ▼ (-0.19)
3-0 @ 7.95% ▲ (+0.94)
3-1 @ 5.17% ▲ (+0.10)
4-0 @ 3.43% ▲ (+0.52)
4-1 @ 2.23% ▲ (+0.13)
3-2 @ 1.68% ▼ (-0.16)
5-0 @ 1.18% ▼ (-95.12)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 63.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.43% ▼ (-0.66)
0-0 @ 9.32% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 2.92% ▼ (-0.40)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 23.06%
Malta
0-1 @ 6.05% ▼ (-0.65)
1-2 @ 3.39% ▼ (-0.62)
0-2 @ 1.97% ▼ (-0.46)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 13.6%

Head to Head

Euro Champ Qualifying
Malta
Mar 26, 2023 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT
Italy
  • goal Mateo Retegui 15'
  • goal Matteo Pessina 27'
European Championship
Italy
Sep 3, 2015 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Malta
  • Graziano Pelle 69' goal
  • Antonio Candreva 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paul Fenech 35'
European Championship
Malta
Oct 13, 2014 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Italy
  • Michael Mifsud 27' redcard
  • Roderick Briffa 41' yellowcard
  • goal Graziano Pelle 23'
  • yellowcard Matteo Darmian 43'
  • redcard Leonardo Bonucci 73'
World Cup
Malta
Mar 26, 2013 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Italy
  • goal Mario Balotelli 0'
World Cup
Italy
Sep 11, 2012 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT
Malta
  • Mattia Destro 0' goal
  • Federico Peluso 0' goal

Form Data

Italy 2 - 1 Ukraine
N. Macedonia 1 - 1 Italy
Netherlands 2 - 3 Italy
Spain 2 - 1 Italy
Malta 0 - 2 Italy
Italy 1 - 2 England
Malta 0 - 2 N. Macedonia
Malta 1 - 0 Gibraltar
Ukraine 1 - 0 Malta
Malta 0 - 4 England
Luxembourg 0 - 1 Malta
Malta 0 - 2 Italy

Build-up

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