Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Malta had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Malta win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.