We said: Armenia 1-3 Ukraine
With Ukraine missing two of their most experienced and talented players through suspension, we can envisage a comfortable victory for the visitors.
They are likely to enjoy playing with more freedom and attacking verve than when being held at arm's length by Scotland in midweek, with victory on Saturday keeping their hopes of promotion to the Nation League's top tier alive ahead of next week's reverse fixture.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 38.69%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 36.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.