Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Armenia had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Armenia win was 1-0 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Scotland would win this match.