World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Play-offs - Finals

Jun 5, 2022 at 5pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
1 - 0
Ukraine

Yarmolenko (34' og.)
Allen (3'), James (3'), Page (51')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mykolenko (32'), Mudryk (90+5')

Reaction

Wales forward Gareth Bale celebrating scoring with a deflected free kick against Ukraine on June 5, 2022.

Wales reach World Cup with tense win over Ukraine

Wales record a 1-0 win against Ukraine in Cardiff to earn a place at the 2022 World Cup.

Jun 5, 17:56

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - Europe clash between Wales and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

Last Six:

Last Game: Wales 1-2 Netherlands
Wednesday, June 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Wales vs. Belgium
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	2	4	6
2	Belgium	2	2	3
3	Poland	2	-4	3
4	Wales	2	-2	0

Ukraine

Last Six:

Last Game: Rep. Ireland 0-1 Ukraine
Wednesday, June 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Ukraine vs. Armenia
Saturday, June 11 at 2pm in Nations League

Current League B1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Scotland	0	0	0
2	Republic of Ireland	0	0	0
3	Ukraine	0	0	0
4	Armenia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 0-1 (11.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Wales in this match.

Result
Wales	Draw	Ukraine
38.31% ( -0.01)	29.38% ( -0.01)	32.31% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 43.49% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.65% (

0.04)

63.35% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.28% (

0.03)

82.71% (

-0.03)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.99% (

0.02)

32.01% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.53% (

0.02)

68.47% (

-0.02)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.97% (

0.04)

36.03% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.19% (

0.04)

72.81% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Wales 38.3%

Ukraine 32.3%

Draw 29.38%

Wales	Draw	Ukraine
1-0 @ 13.13% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.84% 3-2 @ 1.48% ( 0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 38.3%	1-1 @ 13.41% 0-0 @ 11.53% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0) Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.38%	0-1 @ 11.77% 1-2 @ 6.85% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0) Other @ 1.98% Total : 32.3%