World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Monumental de Maturin

Venezuela
3 - 0
Chile

Soteldo (45+1'), Rondon (72'), Machis (79')
Graterol (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunez (59'), Suazo (90+2')
Nunez (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Venezuela
Friday, October 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 2-0 Peru
Friday, October 13 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Chile had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.19%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Chile win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Chile
41.07% ( 2)	29.17% ( 0.13)	29.75% ( -2.14)

Both teams to score 43.29% (

-1.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.78% (

-0.95)

63.22% (

0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.37% (

-0.69)

82.62% (

0.68)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.7% (

0.7)

30.29% (

-0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.53% (

0.83)

66.47% (

-0.84)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.11% (

-2.14)

37.89% (

2.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.33% (

-2.14)

74.66% (

2.14)

Score Analysis

Venezuela 41.06%

Chile 29.75%

Draw 29.16%

Venezuela	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.72) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.36% Total : 41.06%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.16%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.41) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.46) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.67% Total : 29.75%