World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Monumental de Maturin

Venezuela
3 - 0
Chile

Soteldo (45+1'), Rondon (72'), Machis (79')
Graterol (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Nunez (59'), Suazo (90+2')
Nunez (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Brazil 1-1 Venezuela
Friday, October 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 2-0 Peru
Friday, October 13 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Chile had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.19%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest Chile win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Chile
41.07% ( 2)	29.17% ( 0.13)	29.75% ( -2.14)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Venezuela	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.72) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.36% Total : 41.06%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.16%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.41) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.46) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.67% Total : 29.75%