Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 42.85%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 1-0 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.