Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 70.95%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Honduras had a probability of 10.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.72%) and 3-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a Honduras win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.