Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for Canada had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.