Even though the Americans are ranked 10 places higher than Japan according to FIFA, we do not believe on paper that the US are that much better, especially seeing as they have played primarily against teams from CONCACAF over the past few years.
There is quality and creativity on both sides, and they each have plenty of experience with top European clubs, but we expect defensively that each team will be able to keep the scoring chances to a minimum.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 47.41%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for USA had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.21%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Japan would win this match.
0.47) 
-0.37) 
