World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 9, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Centenario

Uruguay
3 - 1
Chile

de la Cruz (38', 38', 71', 71'), Valverde (45+2', 45+2')
Caceres (49'), Caceres (49'), Ugarte (66'), Ugarte (66'), Valverde (76'), Valverde (76'), Vina (77'), Vina (77')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Vidal (74', 74')
Pulgar (34'), Pulgar (34'), Medel (58'), Medel (58'), Mehssatou (62'), Mehssatou (62'), Nunez (78'), Nunez (78'), Delgado (90+5'), Delgado (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Uruguay and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uruguay

All competitions

Last Game: Uruguay 2-0 Cuba
Wednesday, June 21 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	2	6
2	South Korea	3	0	4
3	Uruguay	3	0	4
4	Ghana	3	-2	3

Chile

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivia 0-0 Chile
Wednesday, June 21 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Chile had a probability of 13.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Uruguay	Draw	Chile
62.82% ( -0.29)	23.26% ( 0.22)	13.92% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 39.47% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.18% (

-0.64)

57.81% (

0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.46% (

-0.51)

78.54% (

0.51)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.92% (

-0.34)

18.08% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51% (

-0.58)

49% (

0.59)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.18% (

-0.29)

51.82% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.11% (

-0.19)

85.88% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Uruguay 62.81%

Chile 13.92%

Draw 23.26%

Uruguay	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 16.02% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.76% Total : 62.81%	1-1 @ 10.53% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.4% Total : 23.26%	0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.28% Total : 13.92%