Friendlies 1

Mar 28, 2023 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Chile
3 - 2
Paraguay

Diaz (25'), Sanchez (76'), Silva (90+2' og.)

FT(HT: 1-2)

Rojas (32'), Avalos (34')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's friendly clash between Chile and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions

Last Game: Slovakia 0-0 Chile
Sunday, November 20 at 12.30pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Paraguay

All competitions

Last Game: Colombia 2-0 Paraguay
Sunday, November 20 at 1.20am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 55.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 18.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Paraguay
55.93% ( 0.3)	25.38% ( -0.15)	18.68% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 42.94% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.66% (

0.35)

58.34% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.04% (

0.27)

78.95% (

-0.27)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.09% (

0.26)

20.91% (

-0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.36% (

0.41)

53.64% (

-0.41)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.3% (

0.04)

45.7% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.51% (

0.03)

81.49% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Chile 55.93%

Paraguay 18.69%

Draw 25.38%

Chile	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 14.95% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.1% Total : 55.93%	1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.56% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.53% Total : 25.38%	0-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) 2-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.55% Total : 18.69%