Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.81%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (11.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.