Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 41.51%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 28.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.31%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (11.32%).