Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 64.53%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 13.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.99%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.