Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for Iran had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.37%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Iran win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.