Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 71.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 9.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 2-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.63%) and 3-0 (10.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Uruguay	Draw	Nicaragua
71.77% ( -0.02)	18.73% ( 0.01)	9.5% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 38.79% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.17% (

0.01)

50.83% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.29% (

0.01)

72.71% (

-0.01)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.15% (

-0)

12.85% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.78% (

-0.01)

39.22% (

0.01)

Nicaragua Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.51% (

0.04)

55.48% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.83% (

0.02)

88.17% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Uruguay 71.76%

Nicaragua 9.5%

Draw 18.73%

Uruguay	Draw	Nicaragua
2-0 @ 15% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 14.63% 3-0 @ 10.26% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.27% 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 71.76%	1-1 @ 8.62% ( 0) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) Other @ 0.38% Total : 18.73%	0-1 @ 4.2% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.54% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 1.52% Total : 9.5%