Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 26.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 0-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nicaragua in this match.