World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Chile
2 - 0
Peru

Valdes (74', 74'), Lopez (90+1' og.), Nunez (90+1')
Brereton Diaz (49'), Brereton Diaz (49'), Pulgar (76'), Pulgar (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Guerrero (32'), Guerrero (32'), Lopez (46'), Lopez (46')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Peru

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Peru 0-1 Brazil
Wednesday, September 13 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 65.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.63%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Peru
65.34% ( -0.85)	21.62% ( 0.29)	13.04% ( 0.56)

Both teams to score 41.56% (

0.7)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.36% (

0.08)

53.64% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.86% (

0.07)

75.13% (

-0.06)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.26% (

-0.25)

15.73% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.17% (

-0.47)

44.83% (

0.47)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.32% (

0.98)

50.67% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.88% (

0.66)

85.12% (

-0.65)

Score Analysis

Chile 65.33%

Peru 13.04%

Draw 21.62%

Chile	Draw	Peru
1-0 @ 14.74% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.89% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 65.33%	1-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.48% Total : 21.62%	0-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.37% Total : 13.04%