World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Sep 12, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Monumental de Maturin

Venezuela
1 - 0
Paraguay

Rondon (90+3' pen.)
Sosa (37'), Andres Martinez (65'), Navarro (75')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ortiz (42'), Gonzalez (75'), Gomez (83'), Piris (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Venezuela
Friday, September 8 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	1	4	3
2	Uruguay	1	2	3
3	Argentina	1	1	3
4	Colombia	1	1	3
5	Paraguay	1	0	1
6	Peru	1	0	1
7	Venezuela	1	-1	0
8	Ecuador	1	-1	0
9	Chile	1	-2	0
10	Bolivia	1	-4	0

Paraguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Paraguay 0-0 Peru
Thursday, September 7 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	1	4	3
2	Uruguay	1	2	3
3	Argentina	1	1	3
4	Colombia	1	1	3
5	Paraguay	1	0	1
6	Peru	1	0	1
7	Venezuela	1	-1	0
8	Ecuador	1	-1	0
9	Chile	1	-2	0
10	Bolivia	1	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 56.62%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 17.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.48%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Venezuela in this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Paraguay
56.62% ( 0.41)	26.06% ( -0.28)	17.32% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 39.22% (

0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.93% (

0.68)

62.07% (

-0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.21% (

0.5)

81.79% (

-0.5)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.83% (

0.46)

22.17% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.44% (

0.69)

55.56% (

-0.69)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.39% (

0.23)

49.61% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.61% (

0.16)

84.38% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Venezuela 56.61%

Paraguay 17.32%

Draw 26.05%

Venezuela	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 16.56% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.6% Total : 56.61%	1-1 @ 11.61% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 10.99% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.39% Total : 26.05%	0-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.32%