Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 51.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 22.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paraguay would win this match.