/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fspalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fitalog.png)
-
Rodri
45'+1'
-
Riccardo Calafiori
55'
-
Robin Le Normand
69'
-
Dani Carvajal
90'+6'
-
Gianluigi Donnarumma
15'
-
Bryan Cristante
46'
Spain vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F25%2Falvaro-morata_1.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F24%2Fspacro.JPG)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F24%2Fitaalb.JPG)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
Result
Spain
45.44%
▲
(+0.08)
Draw
24.57%
▲
(+0.28)
Italy
29.99%
▼
(-0.35)
Both Teams to Score:
57.11%
▼
(-1.13)
Goals
Over 2.5
54.43%
▼
(-1.40)
Under 2.5
45.57%
▲
(+1.40)
Over 3.5
32.1%
▼
(-1.35)
Under 3.5
67.9%
▲
(+1.35)
Over 4.5
16.15%
▼
(-0.97)
Under 4.5
83.85%
▲
(+0.97)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5
79.84%
▼
(-0.54)
Under 0.5
20.16%
▲
(+0.54)
Over 1.5
47.56%
▼
(-0.87)
Under 1.5
52.44%
▲
(+0.87)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
71.53%
▼
(-0.93)
Under 0.5
28.47%
▲
(+0.93)
Over 1.5
35.76%
▼
(-1.18)
Under 1.5
64.24%
▲
(+1.19)
Score analysis
Spain
45.44%
Draw
24.56%
Italy
29.99%
Spain
2-1
@
9.25%
▲
(+0.01)
1-0 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.40)
2-0 @ 7.36% ▲ (+0.20)
3-1 @ 4.94% ▼ (-0.08)
3-0 @ 3.93% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 3.1% ▼ (-0.14)
4-1 @ 1.98% ▼ (-0.07)
4-0 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.24% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 45.44%
1-0 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.40)
2-0 @ 7.36% ▲ (+0.20)
3-1 @ 4.94% ▼ (-0.08)
3-0 @ 3.93% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 3.1% ▼ (-0.14)
4-1 @ 1.98% ▼ (-0.07)
4-0 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.24% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 45.44%
Draw
1-1
@
11.54%
▲
(+0.20)
2-2 @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.15)
0-0 @ 5.74% ▲ (+0.34)
3-3 @ 1.3% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.56%
2-2 @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.15)
0-0 @ 5.74% ▲ (+0.34)
3-3 @ 1.3% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.56%
Italy
1-2
@
7.25%
▼
(-0.07)
0-1 @ 7.21% ▲ (+0.24)
0-2 @ 4.53% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 3.04% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 2.43% ▼ (-0.13)
0-3 @ 1.9% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 29.99%
0-1 @ 7.21% ▲ (+0.24)
0-2 @ 4.53% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 3.04% ▼ (-0.11)
2-3 @ 2.43% ▼ (-0.13)
0-3 @ 1.9% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 29.99%
Head to Head
Build-up
Predicted Lineups