The Match
Match Report
Spain put in an impressive display to claim a narrow 1-0 victory over Italy and seal their place in the last 16 at Euro 2024.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's European Championship clash between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
European Championship
Last Game: Spain 3-0 Croatia
Saturday, June 15 at 5pm in European Championship
Saturday, June 15 at 5pm in European Championship
Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
1 | Spain | 1 | 3 | 3 |
2 | Italy | 1 | 1 | 3 |
3 | Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 |
4 | Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
Result | ||
Spain | Draw | Italy |
45.44% ( 0.08) | 24.57% ( 0.27) | 29.99% ( -0.35) |
Both teams to score 57.11% ( -1.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.43% ( -1.39) | 45.57% ( 1.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.1% ( -1.34) | 67.9% ( 1.34) |
Spain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.84% ( -0.53) | 20.16% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.56% ( -0.86) | 52.44% ( 0.86) |
Italy Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.53% ( -0.93) | 28.47% ( 0.93) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.76% ( -1.18) | 64.24% ( 1.18) |
Score Analysis |
Spain 45.44%
Italy 29.99%
Draw 24.56%
Spain | Draw | Italy |
2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.88% Total : 45.44% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.33) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.56% | 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.99% |
How you voted: Spain vs Italy
Spain
60.6%Draw
20.3%Italy
19.1%955
Head to Head
Oct 6, 2021 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-2
Spain
Jul 6, 2021 8pm
Sep 2, 2017 7.45pm
Oct 6, 2016 7.45pm
Form Guide
Build-up
How Spain could line up against Italy
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Spain could line up for Thursday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.
Jun 18, 16:53
How Italy could line up against Spain
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's Euro 2024 clash with Spain.
Jun 18, 16:54
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-10-27 01:33:25
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Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 23 |
2 | Liverpool | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
3 | Aston Villa | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
4 | Arsenal | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 17 |
5 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
6 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
7 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
9 | Brentford | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
10 | Fulham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
11 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
14 | Leicester CityLeicester | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
15 | Everton | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
16 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
17 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 |
18 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
19 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 2 |
20 | Southampton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 1 |
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