International Friendlies
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-
Lorenzo Pellegrini
3'
-
Jorginho
38'
-
Nicolo Zaniolo
66'
-
Gianluca Mancini
73'
-
Andrea Cambiaso
89'
-
Nicolo Barella
90'+4'
Ecuador vs Italy - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Predicted Lineups
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Italy had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
Result
Ecuador
39.5%
▲
(+0.02)
Draw
27.86%
▼
(-0.01)
Italy
32.63%
▼
(-0.02)
Both Teams to Score:
47.79%
▲
(+0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5
41.93%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
58.07%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 3.5
21.25%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 3.5
78.74%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 4.5
9.06%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 4.5
90.93%
▼
(-0.01)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5
71.33%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 0.5
28.67%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 1.5
35.51%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
64.49%
▼
(-0.02)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5
67%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 0.5
33%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 1.5
30.41%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 1.5
69.58%
▲
(+0.01)
Score analysis
Ecuador
39.49%
Draw
27.86%
Italy
32.63%
Ecuador
1-0
@
11.81%
2-1 @ 8.19% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 7.38% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.07% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 1.89% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 1.07% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 39.49%
2-1 @ 8.19% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 7.38% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 3.07% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 1.89% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 1.07% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 39.49%
Draw
1-1
@
13.1%
0-0 @ 9.46% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.54% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 27.86%
0-0 @ 9.46% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.54% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 27.86%
Italy
0-1
@
10.48%
▼
(-0.01)
1-2 @ 7.27% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 32.63%
1-2 @ 7.27% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.15% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.68%
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 32.63%