World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Hernando Siles

Bolivia
1 - 2
Ecuador

Ramallo (83', 83')
Manuel Cuellar Rosales (90'), Cuellar (90')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Paez (45', 45'), Rodriguez (90+6', 90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Bolivia and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Ecuador

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	2	5	6
2	Argentina	2	4	6
3	Colombia	2	1	4
4	Uruguay	2	1	3
5	Ecuador	2	0	3
6	Venezuela	2	0	3
7	Paraguay	2	-1	1
8	Peru	2	-1	1
9	Chile	2	-2	1
10	Bolivia	2	-7	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Bolivia win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
Bolivia	Draw	Ecuador
22.28% ( -1.38)	24.35% ( -0.55)	53.36% ( 1.93)

Both teams to score 50.79% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.42% (

0.88)

50.58% (

-0.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.5% (

0.77)

72.5% (

-0.77)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.63% (

-0.8)

37.37% (

0.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.84% (

-0.8)

74.15% (

0.8)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.1% (

1.11)

18.89% (

-1.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.62% (

1.82)

50.38% (

-1.82)

Score Analysis

Bolivia 22.28%

Ecuador 53.36%

Draw 24.35%

Bolivia	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.41) 2-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.26) 2-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.28) 3-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.12) Other @ 1.66% Total : 22.28%	1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.96% Total : 24.35%	0-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.8% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 5.45% ( 0.36) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.25) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.07) 0-4 @ 2.27% ( 0.22) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.18) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.1% Total : 53.36%