Friendlies 1

Jun 18, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Red Bull Arena, Harrison

Ecuador
1 - 0
Bolivia

Valencia (69', 69')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's friendly clash between Ecuador and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Australia 1-2 Ecuador
Tuesday, March 28 at 9.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	3	4	7
2	Senegal	3	1	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	4
4	Qatar	3	-6	0

Bolivia

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Bolivia
Tuesday, March 28 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	4	5	10
2	Uruguay	4	2	7
3	Paraguay	4	2	6
4	Chile	4	-1	5
5	Bolivia	4	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 72.87%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 9.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.11%) and 3-0 (10.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Bolivia
72.87% ( 0.31)	18.03% ( -0.34)	9.1% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 39.29% (

1.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.82% (

1.45)

49.18% (

-1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.76% (

1.29)

71.24% (

-1.29)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.94% (

0.51)

12.06% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.44% (

1.06)

37.56% (

-1.06)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.68% (

0.98)

55.32% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.93% (

0.57)

88.07% (

-0.57)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 72.86%

Bolivia 9.1%

Draw 18.03%

Ecuador	Draw	Bolivia
2-0 @ 14.92% ( -0.29) 1-0 @ 14.11% ( -0.56) 3-0 @ 10.52% 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.19) 4-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.16) 5-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.81% Total : 72.86%	1-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.4) 2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.39% Total : 18.03%	0-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 1.51% Total : 9.1%