World Cup Qualifying - South America
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-
Lionel Messi
78'
-
Lionel Messi
78'
-
Lionel Messi
78'
-
Leandro Paredes
82'
-
Leandro Paredes
82'
-
Jose Cifuentes
61'
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Jose Cifuentes
61'
Argentina vs Ecuador - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
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Match Preview
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Predicted Lineups
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 69.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 10.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.83%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
Result
Argentina
69.71%
▼
(-0.11)
Draw
19.38%
▲
(+0.05)
Ecuador
10.91%
▲
(+0.07)
Both Teams to Score:
41.75%
▲
(+0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5
50.3%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 2.5
49.7%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 3.5
28.29%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 3.5
71.71%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 4.5
13.51%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 4.5
86.49%
▲
(+0.02)
Argentina Goals
Over 0.5
86.88%
▼
(-0.04)
Under 0.5
13.11%
▲
(+0.04)
Over 1.5
60.24%
▼
(-0.08)
Under 1.5
39.76%
▲
(+0.08)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5
48.05%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 0.5
51.94%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 1.5
14.03%
▲
(+0.07)
Under 1.5
85.97%
▼
(-0.07)
Score analysis
Argentina
69.69%
Draw
19.38%
Ecuador
10.91%
Argentina
2-0
@
14.05%
▼
(-0.03)
1-0 @ 13.83% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 9.52% ▼ (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.21% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 6.23% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 4.83% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.04% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.96% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.04% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 69.69%
1-0 @ 13.83% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 9.52% ▼ (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.21% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 6.23% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 4.83% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.04% ▲ (+0.01)
5-0 @ 1.96% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.04% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 69.69%
Draw
1-1
@
9.07%
▲
(+0.03)
0-0 @ 6.81% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 3.02% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 19.38%
0-0 @ 6.81% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 3.02% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 19.38%
Ecuador
0-1
@
4.46%
▲
(+0.02)
1-2 @ 2.97% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 10.91%
1-2 @ 2.97% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 2.02%
Total : 10.91%
Head to Head
-
Byron Castillo
37'
-
Moises Caicedo
49'
-
Alan Franco
56'
-
Michael Estrada
68'
-
Piero Hincapie
80'
-
Enner Valencia
90'+3'
-
Alexis Mac Allister
18'
-
Julian Alvarez
24'
-
Lionel Sebastian Scaloni
67'
-
Lionel Scaloni
67'
-
Nicolas Otamendi
68'
-
Nicolas Tagliafico
90'+1'
Piero Hincapie
90'+2'
International Friendlies
-
Leandro Paredes
12'
-
Lucas Alario
20'
-
Jhon Espinoza
27'
-
Leandro Paredes
32'
-
German Pezzella
61'
-
German Pezzella
66'
-
Nicolas Dominguez
82'
-
Lucas Ocampos
86'
-
Dario Aimar
31'
-
Jhegson Mendez
40'
-
Angel Mena
49'