World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 18, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

Ecuador
0 - 0
Colombia

Hincapie (33'), Hincapie (33'), Gruezo (41'), Gruezo (41')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Cuesta (63')
Mosquera (9'), Mosquera (9'), Sanchez (25'), Sanchez (25'), Arias (27'), Arias (27'), Cuesta (77'), Cuesta (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Colombia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Bolivia 1-2 Ecuador
Friday, October 13 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Colombia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Colombia 2-2 Uruguay
Thursday, October 12 at 9.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	5	9
2	Brazil	3	5	7
3	Ecuador	3	1	6
4	Colombia	3	1	5
5	Uruguay	3	1	4
6	Chile	3	0	4
7	Venezuela	3	0	4
8	Paraguay	3	-2	1
9	Peru	3	-3	1
10	Bolivia	3	-8	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.24%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 21.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (7.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.39%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 15.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Colombia
47.24% ( 0.88)	30.82% ( -0.03)	21.94% ( -0.84)

Both teams to score 34.7% (

-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

28.85% (

-0.37)

71.15% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

12.04% (

-0.23)

87.96% (

0.23)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.07% (

0.28)

30.93% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.78% (

0.33)

67.22% (

-0.33)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.23% (

-1.12)

49.77% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.5% (

-0.8)

84.49% (

0.79)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 47.23%

Colombia 21.93%

Draw 30.82%

Ecuador	Draw	Colombia
1-0 @ 18.06% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.92% Total : 47.23%	0-0 @ 15.39% ( 0.21) 1-1 @ 12.6% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.25% Total : 30.82%	0-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.03% Total : 21.93%