Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 41.42%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 28.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 2-1 (7.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.