International Friendly

Sep 25, 2022 at 1am UK

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Colombia
4 - 1
Guatemala

Rodriguez (40'), Sinisterra (57'), Borre (76'), Asprilla (89')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Santis (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's International Friendlies clash between Colombia and Guatemala, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-1 Colombia
Sunday, June 5 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

Guatemala

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Guatemala 2-0 Dominican Rep.
Tuesday, June 14 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Trinidad and Tobago	3	4	7
2	Mexico	3	6	5
3	Cuba	3	-7	3
4	Guatemala	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 17.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.41%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (8.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
Colombia	Draw	Guatemala
55.63% ( 0.19)	27.15% ( -0.12)	17.22% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 36.7% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.68% (

0.25)

65.32% (

-0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.88% (

0.17)

84.11% (

-0.17)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76% (

0.19)

24% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.75% (

0.28)

58.25% (

-0.28)

Guatemala Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.29% (

0.05)

51.71% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.19% (

0.04)

85.81% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Colombia 55.62%

Guatemala 17.22%

Draw 27.15%

Colombia	Draw	Guatemala
1-0 @ 17.71% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 12.63% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.1% Total : 55.62%	0-0 @ 12.41% ( -0.11) 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.31% Total : 27.15%	0-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.85% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.49% Total : 17.22%