Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 58.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 17.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.