Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 56.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 18.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.43%) and 1-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.