Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 67.33%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 12.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.44%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.