Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 57.15%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.