Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 49.52%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 1-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Finland in this match.