Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Nov 17, 2023 at 3pm UK

Astana Arena

Kazakhstan
3 - 1
San Marino

Chesnokov (19', 51'), Aymbetov (90+2' pen.)
Kenesov (63'), Erlanov (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Franciosi (60')
Mularoni (50'), Fabbri (88'), Pancotti (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Kazakhstan and San Marino, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: Finland 1-2 Kazakhstan
Tuesday, October 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	8	11	19
2	Denmark	8	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	8	3	15
4	Finland	8	3	12
5	Northern Ireland	8	-2	6
6	San Marino	8	-25	0

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Denmark
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	8	11	19
2	Denmark	8	10	19
3	Kazakhstan	8	3	15
4	Finland	8	3	12
5	Northern Ireland	8	-2	6
6	San Marino	8	-25	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 90.49%. A draw had a probability of 7.2% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 2.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.35%) and 4-0 (11.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.39%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (1.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.

Result
Kazakhstan	Draw	San Marino
90.49% ( -1.33)	7.21% ( 0.94)	2.29% ( 0.39)

Both teams to score 32.74% (

0.81)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.39% (

-2.43)

28.61% (

2.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.5% (

-3.06)

49.5% (

3.07)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.24% (

-0.56)

3.76% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

83.9% (

-1.91)

16.1% (

1.92)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

34.02% (

1.04)

65.98% (

-1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

6.58% (

0.43)

93.42% (

-0.42)

Score Analysis

Kazakhstan 90.49%

San Marino 2.29%

Draw 7.21%

Kazakhstan	Draw	San Marino
3-0 @ 14.6% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 13.35% ( 0.67) 4-0 @ 11.97% ( -0.57) 1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.78) 5-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.79) 3-1 @ 6.07% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.47) 4-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.67) 5-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.19) 7-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.43) 6-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.31% Total : 90.49%	1-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.44) 0-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.19% Total : 7.21%	0-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.18) Other @ 1.26% Total : 2.29%