Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 14, 2023 at 2pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
3 - 0
San Marino

Smyth (5'), Magennis (11'), McMenamin (81')
Lewis (43'), Washington (64'), McNair (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Northern Ireland and San Marino, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: Kazakhstan 1-0 N. Ireland
Sunday, September 10 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	6	7	13
2	Denmark	6	7	13
3	Finland	6	7	12
4	Kazakhstan	6	4	12
5	Northern Ireland	6	-4	3
6	San Marino	6	-21	0

San Marino

All competitions

Last Game: San Marino 0-4 Slovenia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	6	7	13
2	Denmark	6	7	13
3	Finland	6	7	12
4	Kazakhstan	6	4	12
5	Northern Ireland	6	-4	3
6	San Marino	6	-21	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 95.85%. A draw had a probability of 3.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (16.76%) and 2-0 (15.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (2.46%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 18.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	San Marino
95.85% ( -0.03)	3.73% ( 0.02)	0.42% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 11.78% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.55% (

-0.03)

28.45% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.7% (

-0.03)

49.3% (

0.04)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.2% (

-0.01)

2.8% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

87.2% (

-0.03)

12.81% (

0.03)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

12.12% (

0.13)

87.88% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

0.77% (

0.02)

99.24% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 95.83%

San Marino 0.42%

Draw 3.73%

Northern Ireland	Draw	San Marino
3-0 @ 18.74% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 16.76% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 15.72% 5-0 @ 11.98% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.79% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.03) 7-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 8-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 95.83%	0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0) 1-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 3.73%	Other @ 0.42% Total : 0.42%