Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 87.83%. A draw had a probability of 9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 3.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.29%) and 4-0 (10.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.23%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (1.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.