We said: Malta 2-0 San Marino
Although Malta are not the most formidable side to face the minnows of San Marino, they remain huge favourites to come out with a comfortable victory on Sunday.
There are no signs to suggest that the hosts will struggle in their task, and we are going for a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline earned away from home against their opponents on June 5.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malta win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for San Marino had a probability of 27.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malta win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest San Marino win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malta would win this match.