Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Slovenia had a probability of 37.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (5.97%). The likeliest Slovenia win was 1-0 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.