Serbia

4 - 1

Slovenia

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 53.85%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 19.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.