Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Helsingin olympiastadion

Finland
1 - 2
Kazakhstan

Taylor (28')
Ivanov (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Zainutdinov (77' pen., 89')
Marochkin (27'), Samorodov (79'), Kuat (81'), Skvortsov (90+3'), Orazov (90+5'), Beysebekov (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Finland and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Finland

All competitions

Last Game: Slovenia 3-0 Finland
Saturday, October 14 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: Denmark 3-1 Kazakhstan
Saturday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 56.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 19.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.

Result
Finland	Draw	Kazakhstan
56.38% ( -2.19)	23.76% ( 0.93)	19.86% ( 1.25)

Both teams to score 49.18% (

-0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49% (

-2.08)

51% (

2.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.14% (

-1.86)

72.86% (

1.86)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.09% (

-1.52)

17.91% (

1.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.29% (

-2.69)

48.71% (

2.69)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.91% (

0.19)

40.09% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.27% (

0.17)

76.73% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Finland 56.37%

Kazakhstan 19.86%

Draw 23.75%

Finland	Draw	Kazakhstan
1-0 @ 12.34% ( 0.41) 2-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.36) 4-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.33) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.29) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.37%	1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.43) 0-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.58) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.86% Total : 23.75%	0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.56) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.3% Total : 19.86%