Friendlies 1

Oct 14, 2023 at 8pm UK

Nippert Stadium

USA
1 - 3
Germany

Pulisic (27')
Musah (56')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gundogan (39'), Fullkrug (58'), Musiala (61')
Hummels (43')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: USA 4-0 Oman
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	USA	3	12	7
2	Jamaica	3	8	7
3	Trinidad and Tobago	3	-6	3
4	Saint Kitts and Nevis	3	-14	0

Germany

All competitions

Last Game: Germany 2-1 France
Tuesday, September 12 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Japan	3	1	6
2	Spain	3	6	4
3	Germany	3	1	4
4	Costa Rica	3	-8	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for Germany had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Germany
41.06% ( -0.01)	24.51% ( 0.06)	34.43% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 59.15% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.3% (

-0.29)

43.7% (

0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.91% (

-0.29)

66.09% (

0.29)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.65% (

-0.13)

21.35% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.68% (

-0.2)

54.32% (

0.21)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.21% (

-0.17)

24.79% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.64% (

-0.23)

59.37% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

USA 41.06%

Germany 34.43%

Draw 24.51%

USA	Draw	Germany
2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.25% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.62% Total : 41.06%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.51%	1-2 @ 7.95% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.39% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.43%