Friendlies 1

Apr 20, 2023 at 3am UK

Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium

USA
1 - 1
Mexico

Ferreira (81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Uriel (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's friendly clash between USA and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions

Last Game: USA 1-0 El Salvador
Tuesday, March 28 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	England	3	7	7
2	USA	3	1	5
3	Iran	3	-3	3
4	Wales	3	-5	1

Mexico

All competitions

Last Game: Mexico 2-2 Jamaica
Monday, March 27 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	3	3	6
2	Poland	3	0	4
3	Mexico	3	-1	4
4	Saudi Arabia	3	-2	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 36.37%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.

Result
USA	Draw	Mexico
36.37% ( 1.55)	27.87% ( 0.03)	35.76% ( -1.57)

Both teams to score 48.19% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.24% (

-0.05)

57.76% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.5% (

-0.04)

78.5% (

0.04)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.61% (

0.96)

30.39% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.42% (

1.13)

66.58% (

-1.13)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.23% (

-1)

30.77% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.97% (

-1.19)

67.04% (

1.19)

Score Analysis

USA 36.36%

Mexico 35.76%

Draw 27.86%

USA	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.36%	1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.86%	0-1 @ 11.02% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.11% Total : 35.76%